Longshot

Longshot
Why betting on unlikely outcomes can be thrilling, risky, and sometimes profitable

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📘 Definition

A Longshot in sports betting refers to a wager on an outcome that is considered highly unlikely to occur, typically represented by high odds and potentially huge payouts. Longshots are attractive because they offer the chance to win a large sum of money from a small stake. For example, backing a 50/1 underdog to win a horse race, wagering on a relegation candidate to win the league title, or betting on a tennis qualifier to upset the world number one are all classic longshot scenarios.

The allure of longshots lies in the risk–reward tradeoff: bettors are tempted by the dream of turning a small bet into a life-changing win. However, the mathematics of probability and bookmaker margins work against bettors. Bookmakers often take larger margins on long odds, making them less profitable over the long term unless the bettor has correctly identified a true value opportunity.

Historically, longshots have delivered some of the most famous wins in sports betting—such as Leicester City winning the English Premier League in 2016 at odds of 5000/1—but for every miracle story, thousands of longshot bets fail.

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🧮 Structure

Longshots appear in many different betting formats across sports:

1. Moneyline Underdogs

   • Example: An NBA team listed at +800 (decimal 9.0) against a title contender.

2. Futures and Outrights

   • Example: A mid-table soccer club priced at 100/1 to win the league.

3. Prop Bets

   • Example: A defensive lineman to score the first touchdown in an NFL game at 60/1.

4. Parlays/Accumulators

   • Even if each leg is short odds, combining many selections creates a longshot payout structure.

5. Live Betting Situations

   • Teams trailing heavily can see their live odds jump to +1000 or more. Betting on a comeback at this point is a classic live longshot play.

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🎯 In Practice

Longshots are common across sports, but their role differs depending on how bettors use them:

• Casual Bettors: Often place small amounts (€5–€10) on longshots for fun, treating them as lottery tickets.

• Professional Bettors: Approach longshots analytically, looking for situations where the implied probability is lower than their model suggests.

• Hedgers: Use longshot futures bets early, then hedge later when teams advance further than expected.

Example in Soccer:

• A bettor places €20 on an outsider at 50.0 odds to win a tournament.

• If the team makes the final, the bettor can hedge by betting on the opponent, securing profit no matter the outcome.

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🔢 Example Bet

Event: Champions League Final – Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid.

• Pre-match odds: Bayern 2.10, Draw 3.60, Real Madrid 3.30.

• A bettor places €100 on Real Madrid at 3.30.

This is not a pure longshot—Real Madrid are underdogs but not extreme ones. Now compare:

• A bettor places €20 on Borussia Dortmund at 34.0 to win the entire Champions League pre-tournament.

• If Dortmund win, payout = €680.

• Even if Dortmund only make the final, the bettor can hedge for guaranteed profit.

This illustrates that longshots are not only about chasing miracles—they can also be tools for strategic bankroll management.

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💸 Pros and Cons

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💡 Strategy Tips

1. Look for Value, Not Just Odds

   • A 100/1 shot with a true 0.5% chance is a bad bet. A 100/1 shot with a 2% true chance is excellent value.

2. Stake Small

   • Keep longshot wagers as a small percentage of bankroll. Treat them as speculative investments.

3. Use Hedging

   • If your longshot advances deep into a tournament, hedge to lock in guaranteed returns.

4. Focus on Niche Sports

   • Bookmakers are less efficient in smaller markets, increasing the chance of mispriced longshots.

5. Beware of Psychological Bias

   • Humans overestimate small probabilities and are seduced by “miracle stories.” Stay rational.

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📊 Best Use Cases

• Horse Racing: Classic longshot environment. Outsiders win races regularly enough to attract bets.

• Futures: Championship winners, MVP awards, or tournament outrights.

• Props: First touchdown scorer in NFL games or correct-score bets in soccer.

• Niche Sports: Esports, darts, or table tennis often have softer markets where longshots may carry value.

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⚠️ Common Mistakes

• Betting too many longshots: A string of losing tickets can wipe out bankroll.

• Mistaking entertainment for strategy: Longshots are fine for fun but not for consistent profits.

• Ignoring bookmaker margins: Vig is often steepest in high-odds markets.

• Recency bias: Just because Leicester City pulled off a miracle does not mean it is likely to repeat.

• Overconfidence in tips: Following “hot longshot picks” from unreliable sources usually ends badly.

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📌 Summary