Yield

Yield
The performance metric that reveals efficiency in betting beyond raw profit

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📘 Definition

Yield in sports betting is a profitability metric that measures the percentage of profit relative to total stake placed. While similar to ROI, yield is often used in European betting communities to evaluate tipsters, betting systems, or personal performance. It reflects how efficiently a bettor turns stakes into profit, making it a vital benchmark for comparing betting approaches.

Formula:

Yield=ProfitTotal Stakes×100Yield = \frac{\text{Profit}}{\text{Total Stakes}} \times 100Yield=Total StakesProfit​×100

Example:

• Total stakes = €10,000

• Profit = €1,000

• Yield = 10%

Yield is crucial because it adjusts for variance in stake sizing. A bettor making €5,000 profit from €50,000 staked (10% yield) is more efficient than someone making €10,000 profit from €200,000 staked (5% yield).

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🧮 Structure

Key aspects of yield:

1. Total Stakes

   • The denominator in calculation. Every wagered euro/dollar counts.

2. Profit or Loss

   • Net outcome after wins, losses, and juice.

3. Comparison Tool

   • Normalizes results across bankroll sizes.

4. Difference from ROI

   • ROI often tied to total bankroll. Yield is tied specifically to total stakes.

5. Usage in Tipster Evaluation

   • Many betting services promote “yield” as their main performance claim.

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🎯 In Practice

Yield provides insight into efficiency:

• Example 1: Bettor A stakes €1,000 per game, 100 games total = €100,000 staked. Finishes with €5,000 profit. Yield = 5%.

• Example 2: Bettor B stakes €100 per game, 200 games = €20,000 staked. Finishes with €3,000 profit. Yield = 15%.

Even though Bettor A profited more in absolute terms, Bettor B was more efficient per stake.

Yield also helps compare tipsters:

• Tipster X: +100 units from 2,000 units staked → 5% yield.

• Tipster Y: +200 units from 5,000 units staked → 4% yield.
  Tipster X is more efficient, even with fewer absolute profits.

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🔢 Example Calculation

Suppose you place 400 bets at €50 each = €20,000 total staked.

• Wins: €11,000

• Losses: €9,000

• Net profit = €2,000

Yield = €2,000 ÷ €20,000 = 10%.

This means for every €100 staked, you earn €10 in profit.

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💸 Pros and Cons

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💡 Strategy Tips

1. Track Stakes Accurately

   • Without exact records, yield calculation is useless.

2. Evaluate Over Large Samples

   • At least 500 bets needed for meaningful yield.

3. Don’t Compare Short-Term Yields

   • A 50% yield after 10 bets is meaningless.

4. Separate by Sport/Market

   • Tracking yield across NBA vs soccer shows where you’re most efficient.

5. Ignore Inflated Claims

   • Touts claiming 30–40% yield long-term are fraudulent.

6. Use Units Instead of Currency

   • Express yield in units for clarity (e.g., +50 units from 1,000 staked = 5%).

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📊 Best Use Cases

• Tipster Evaluation: The most transparent way to compare services.

• Personal Tracking: Essential for disciplined bettors improving strategy.

• Niche Sports: High-yield possible when exploiting soft markets.

• Long-Term Performance: Provides accurate efficiency benchmark.

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⚠️ Common Mistakes

• Confusing ROI with Yield: ROI relates to bankroll; yield relates to stakes.

• Cherry-Picking Bets: Inflates yield falsely.

• Failing to Adjust for Vig: Must include juice in losses.

• Overemphasis on Short Runs: A few lucky wins create misleading yield.

• Blindly Trusting Touts: Without transparent records, yield claims are worthless.

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📌 Summary