Vigorish (Juice)

Vigorish (Juice)
The hidden tax in every bet and why understanding it is essential for long-term profitability

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📘 Definition

Vigorish, often shortened to “vig” and also called “juice”, is the commission that sportsbooks charge bettors for taking wagers. It represents the built-in edge that ensures bookmakers profit regardless of outcomes if betting volume is balanced.

In practice, vigorish is the reason standard spread and total lines are priced at -110 instead of even-money. That extra 10 cents per dollar wagered is the bookmaker’s margin. Without vig, sports betting would operate at zero-sum odds where bettors who win 50% of the time break even. With vig, bettors must win at least 52.38% of wagers at -110 odds to avoid losses.

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🧮 Structure

The mechanics of vigorish can be explained through implied probabilities:

1. Standard Line (-110 / -110)

   • Each side implies a win probability of 52.38%.

   • Combined = 104.76%, exceeding 100% (the fair market).

   • The extra 4.76% is the vig.

2. No-Vig Line

   • If the true odds were even, both sides would be +100 (50% each).

3. Variable Vig

   • Some markets charge higher vig: props (-115 / -115) or niche sports (-120 / -120).

   • Low-vig promotions: -105 pricing or “reduced juice” books.

4. House Edge Calculation

   • Formula: House Edge = (Sum of Implied Probabilities – 100%).

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🎯 In Practice

Sportsbooks rely on vig as their business model:

• NFL Example: Chiefs -3 (-110) vs Jets +3 (-110).

  • If book takes $110 on both sides, it collects $220.

  • Winner paid $210 ($110 stake + $100 profit).

  • Book keeps $10 risk-free.

• NBA Example: Over 215.5 (-110) vs Under 215.5 (-110).

  • Same math applies—house collects vig regardless of outcome if bets are balanced.

• Prop Bets:

  • Books often shade juice to -115 / -115 or worse, increasing edge.

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🔢 Example Bet

Bettor places $550 on Packers -6.5 at -110:

• Win: Profit = $500, payout $1,050.

• Lose: Forfeit $550.

Break-even rate = 52.38%.
If bettor wagers 100 games at -110 and goes 52–48, they still lose money due to vig.

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💸 Pros and Cons

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💡 Strategy Tips

1. Line Shop

   • Always compare multiple sportsbooks. Even small vig differences add up long term.

2. Target Reduced Juice

   • Some books offer -105 spreads, lowering break-even to 51.22%.

3. Avoid High-Vig Props

   • Don’t overbet -120 / -120 markets unless confident in big edge.

4. Calculate No-Vig Line

   • Remove bookmaker margin to see true probability. Tools and formulas can help.

5. Focus on ROI, Not Win Rate

   • A 53% win rate may be profitable at -105, but losing at -115.

6. Exploit Market Timing

   • Early sharp bets move lines, sometimes reducing vig opportunities.

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📊 Best Use Cases

• NFL Spreads/Totals: Classic -110 markets where vig most visible.

• NBA & NHL Moneylines: Odds splits reveal hidden juice.

• MLB Run Lines: Heavily juiced, requiring line shopping.

• Soccer Props: High vig in cards, corners, or niche leagues—ripe for caution.

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⚠️ Common Mistakes

• Ignoring vig completely: Thinking 50% win rate = break even.

• Betting -120 lines casually: Each step up in vig raises break-even rate.

• Falling for promos: Boosted odds often hide vig elsewhere.

• Not tracking CLV: Beating the closing line consistently offsets vig disadvantage.

• Chasing parlays: Vig multiplies across legs, creating massive house edge.

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📌 Summary