Payout

Payout
How winnings are calculated, what affects final returns, and why payout structures differ across sportsbooks

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📘 Definition

A Payout in sports betting refers to the total amount of money a bettor receives when a wager wins. It includes both the bettor’s original stake and the profit earned based on the odds offered at the time of the bet. Payouts are determined by three factors: stake size, odds format, and outcome.

Example:

• Stake: $100

• Odds: +200 (decimal 3.00, fractional 2/1)

• If bet wins → total payout = $300 ($200 profit + $100 stake returned).

Payouts are central to understanding betting value. While casual bettors focus only on potential profits, sharp bettors break down payouts into implied probabilities and expected value (EV), comparing them to true chances of success.

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🧮 Structure

The calculation of payouts depends on the odds format:

1. American Odds

   • Positive odds (+200): profit = stake × (odds ÷ 100).

   • Negative odds (-150): profit = stake ÷ (odds ÷ 100).

2. Decimal Odds

   • Total payout = stake × decimal odds.

   • Profit = payout – stake.

3. Fractional Odds

   • Payout = stake × numerator ÷ denominator + stake.

4. Parlays

   • Each leg multiplies payout odds. A 3-leg parlay with +150, +120, and -110 compounds into a much higher payout.

5. Teasers / Alternate Lines

   • Adjusting lines changes payouts: safer lines reduce payout, riskier lines increase payout.

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🎯 In Practice

Understanding payouts allows bettors to compare offers and optimize value:

• NFL Example:

  • $200 on Eagles -110 → payout $381.82 ($181.82 profit).

  • $200 on Eagles +120 → payout $440 ($240 profit).

• Soccer Example (3-way):

  • Bet $100 on Bayern at 2.50 → payout $250 ($150 profit).

  • Same $100 on Draw at 3.40 → payout $340 ($240 profit).

• Parlay Example:

  • $50 4-leg parlay, all legs -110.

  • Payout ~ $660 profit, total return ~$710.

The sportsbook margin (vig) is built into payouts, so comparing across operators is essential.

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🔢 Example Bet

You bet $500 on Warriors +150 to beat Lakers.

• Decimal odds = 2.50.

• Profit = $500 × (2.50 – 1) = $750.

• Total payout = $1,250.

If instead you had bet Lakers -180 with $500:

• Profit = $500 ÷ (180 ÷ 100) = $277.78.

• Total payout = $777.78.

This shows how underdog payouts are larger but less likely, while favorite payouts are smaller but more probable.

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💸 Pros and Cons

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💡 Strategy Tips

1. Always Convert Odds

   • Check implied probability behind payout to judge value.

2. Line Shop Aggressively

   • A difference between +140 and +150 payouts creates long-term profitability shifts.

3. Don’t Chase Big Payouts

   • Large parlay payouts appeal emotionally but drain bankrolls.

4. Use Promotions

   • Books often enhance payouts with boosts or insurance. Use them strategically.

5. Track Break-Even Rates

   • At -110, break-even is 52.38%. At +200, break-even is 33.3%. Compare payout vs true chance.

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📊 Best Use Cases

• Straight Bets: Easiest way to track fair payout vs risk.

• Parlays and Accumulators: High-payout but low-probability markets, entertaining but risky.

• Underdog Moneylines: Best spot for bettors who identify mispriced edges.

• Promotions and Boosts: Enhanced payouts can turn neutral bets into positive EV.

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⚠️ Common Mistakes

• Ignoring vig: Payout looks attractive, but true probability makes it negative EV.

• Overvaluing longshots: Chasing +800 odds without justification drains bankroll.

• Misunderstanding odds formats: Not converting between decimal, fractional, and American can cause confusion.

• Parlay addiction: Tempted by giant payouts, bettors often ignore the minuscule hit rate.

• Forgetting stake return: Some bettors mistakenly calculate only profit, not full payout.

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📌 Summary